Heat impacts on health in Scotland
Deaths 2005-2024

About this release

This report by Public Health Scotland provides the first comprehensive analysis of heat impacts on health in Scotland and is specifically focussed on the impact of heat on mortality.

The report highlights the estimated heat impacts on mortality in Scotland during the summer months (from June to September) over the last 20 years (2005-2024). A range of risk thresholds for heat attributable deaths are presented and an initial analysis of the differential impact of heat across demographic groups is reported. A detailed description is given of the modelling methods used to produce both the risk thresholds and attributable trends.

We are continuing to develop this report and welcome feedback on our current plans for annual updates and ongoing analysis. This will include an in-depth analysis of the impact of heat on hospitalisations, as well as a more comprehensive analysis of the differential impacts across various demographic and health subgroups, including breakdowns by age, gender, SIMD, and health conditions.

In the future, this report will be integrated into a broader set of publications and indicators on the impact of climate change on health in Scotland.

Main points

This report provides a comprehensive and up to date analysis of the impact of heat on deaths in Scotland over the last 20 years from 2005 to 2024.

Key risk thresholds for heat-related deaths were identified:

• The risk of death for the Scottish population started to increase at 18.2°C
• The population was at a 10% higher risk of death at 22.6°C than below the risk increase threshold (18.2°C).
• The modelled rate and number of heat-related deaths between 2005 and 2024 was variable but increased in line with higher maximum temperatures from 2007.
• People aged 65 and over had a higher rate of attributable deaths than people under 65 years, at all temperature risk thresholds.

Background

This report addresses a data gap, highlighted in Scotland's second statutory five year national adaptation programme, Climate Ready Scotland: Climate Change Adaptation Programme 2019-2024 released by Scottish Government in September 2019. In the recently published PHS Climate Impact Indicators Feasibility Report, a potential suite of indicators to provide evidence for the impact of climate on health is outlined. It is particularly pertinent to understand how heat is impacting health now, as 'typical summers in Scotland will be warmer and drier' under future climate scenarios (Climate Projections for Scotland Summary).

Further information

This report is published alongside a new climate profile of interactive indicators on the ScotPHO profiles Tool. The profile can be accessed via the 'Climate' section of the ScotPHO profiles tool landing page.

The next release of this publication will be 27 October 2026.